cryptocarsgame| Everbright Futures: May 8 Nonferrous Metals Daily

Copper:

Overnight copper price performance is strong, prices continue to hover at high levels. On the macro front, senior Fed officials said yesterday that non-farm data were not weak, that the Fed would keep interest rates stable for a longer period of time, and that if inflation fell again, or if the US labor market was found to be significantly weaker, all of these could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. judging from the available data, the senior official is obviously hawkish. In terms of fundamentals, domestic TC quotations continue to decline, which is also intensified.CryptocarsgameThe market is worried about the supply of refined copper, but the supply of anode plates may make refined copper production slightly higher than market expectations; on the demand side, downstream consumption is slightly warmer, and some companies are gradually accepting high copper prices under long-term pressure. In terms of inventory, SMM data on Monday showed a slight increase in copper social inventory, while the elimination of social inventory is still slow. The two trading days after the festival show that the game between expectation and reality of the copper market continues. From the published economic data and the performance of the domestic and foreign financial markets, the risk appetite is still strong and supports the copper price.

Nickel & stainless steel:

Overnight LME Nickel fell 0.Cryptocarsgame.73%, Shanghai Nickel fell 0.68%. On the inventory side, LME nickel stocks decreased by 24 tons to 79896 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 215 tons to 19830 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount rose 100 yuan / ton to-450 yuan / ton. In terms of stainless steel, at the cost end, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose, the performance of nickel and iron price was strong, and the inventory appeared to be slightly removed before the festival, but the overall inventory level was still on the high side, and there was still a drag on terminal real estate. The performance of white goods driven by policy is on the strong side. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the growth rate of intermediate imports accelerated, the month-on-month growth rate of scheduled production slowed down in May, and the price of nickel sulfate fell slightly before the festival. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.

Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:

Overnight alumina concussion is weak, overnight AO2406 closed at 3741 yuan / ton, down 1.76%, positions increased by 1177 to 55562 hands. Shanghai aluminum concussion is weak, overnight AL2406 closed at 20585 yuan / ton, down 0.58%. Reduce the position by 2677 hands to 206400 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3566 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingot discount expanded to 80 yuan / ton, Foshan A00 quoted up to 20530 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted a discount of 20 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum bar processing fees in Nanchang, Linyi, Henan Province, down 30-50 yuan / ton, Wuxi Xinjiang Guangdong Baotou down 30-50 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 reduced by 50 yuan / ton, 6speed 8 series processing fees increased by 85 yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 held stable, A356 and ZLD102/104 increased by 50 yuan / ton. Alumina funds leave the market before the festival, and under the support of the arbitrage space and the demand for deliverables, we can still pay attention to the unilateral long space after the festival. During the festival, the Fed's interest rate discussion remained unchanged, and non-agricultural data were suppressed to a certain extent. After the opening of the inner trading after the festival, there was a slight make-up decline, but there was little overall impact under the appreciation of the RMB. The internal and external price difference of electrolytic aluminum is expanding, the margin of supply and demand tends to be loose, but there is no prominent contradiction, the market sentiment has not completely turned, it is expected that the performance of alumina is relatively stronger, the interval of electrolytic aluminum is mainly fluctuating, pay attention to the trend of inventory consumption, and guard against price correction.

Tin:

The trading volume of 5x7 Indonesian JFX is 100t, and that of 5Universe 6 Indonesian ICDX is 50t. In May, the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges was 475t. The main force of Shanghai tin rose 0.02% to 263270 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 15921 tons, an increase of 8 tons over the previous day. LME rose 1.87% to US $32600 / ton, while tin stocks increased by 20 tons to 4855 tons. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 0300 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0800 yuan / ton, small brand discount 1000 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-900 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-390 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.08. LME05 long more than 40% entity position is still there, Klang delivery position continued under 20% short entity position reduced to 3, next week is the final trading day of 05 contract, may see continued inventory storage. Indonesian trading volume shrank more in the first week of May, but the pace of LME out of the warehouse is slow, in the short term, prices may be partial volatility, can be bargain-seeking machine layout in the long-term.

Zinc:

The main force of zinc in Shanghai rose 0.62% to 23485 yuan per ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 76352 tons, a decrease of 471 tons from the previous day. LME rose 1.2 per cent to US $2943.0 / tonne, while zinc stocks decreased by 253725 tonnes. In the spot market, the discount of Shanghai Zinc to 2406 contract is around 140150 yuan / ton, and the average price is 0.10 yuan / ton; the discount of Guangdong zinc to Shanghai zinc 2406 contract is 95,110 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai stock market; the discount of Tianjin Zinc to 2406 contract is around 60,100 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin zinc is 20 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai stock market. In terms of price difference, 05-06 spread-25 yuan / ton, 06-07 spread-50 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 7.98. Although overseas smelters and mines announced resumption of production before and after May Day, it had little impact on the market as a whole, indicating that the market currently has more transactions on domestic real estate stimulus policies. In the short term, although there is no positive stimulus to the demand for physical procurement, the market mood is optimistic and prices may be strongly volatile.

Industrial silicon:

On the 7th, the industrial silicon shock was weak, with the main force 2406 closing at 11955 yuan / ton, down 0.75% on the day, with positions increasing by 783 to 108900 hands. The spot continues to stabilize, and the reference price of Baichuan is 13367 yuan / ton, which is the same as before the festival. Among them, the price range of # 553 fell to 12800-13500 yuan / ton, and the price range of # 421 remained stable at 13550-14050 yuan / ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan / ton, and the spot discount is up to 170 yuan / ton. Before the festival, some manufacturers take the opportunity to replenish the stock and stack the short positions to reduce the stock to drive the upward repair of the disk surface. However, there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, the scale of downstream hoarding is not high, the post-holiday supply market of silicon factories is still in doubt, and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations is on the low side. Cost-side slow release of superimposed warehouse receipts into the spot pressure, post-holiday disk appears pullback pressure. As the marginal disturbance between supply and demand weakens, and the silicon price is at a relatively low point, the subsequent silicon price will change from a unilateral decline to a narrow volatility market, it is recommended to appropriately stop the surplus to leave the market, should not pursue short too much.

Lithium carbonate:

Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract rose 1.7% to approximately 113,900 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to 111,900 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 109,400 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide remained at 100,400 yuan/ton. The basis difference is about-2050 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts increased by 611 tons to 20984 tons yesterday. On the supply side, lithium carbonate output is expected to continue to increase in May, which will be due to the resumption of production and early purchased ore after the overhaul of Dachang/Salt Lake. At the same time, there are still expectations for an increase in imports. On the demand side, prices in the early stage were relatively low, and downstream stocks were replenished. In May, the month-on-month growth rate of cathode material production scheduling slowed down rapidly, and the willingness of some cathode manufacturers to purchase also weakened. The terminal side may be stimulated by the old-for-new policy and auto shows. The price of industrial carbon/lithium ore still has support, and the release of documents on tailings treatment is expected to increase the cost of lithium extraction. At the same time, environmental protection issues have attracted renewed attention; and the import volume exceeded expectations, which may put some pressure on prices. The overall market lacks strong driving force and remains volatile in the short term.