baccarat888com| Everbright Futures: May 8 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oilBaccarat888com:

SC2406, the main contract for crude oil, closed up 0% on Tuesday.Baccarat888com.28%, at 617Baccarat888com.8 yuan per barrel; WTI June contract closed down 0.10 US dollars per barrel, or 0.13%, to 78.38 US dollars per barrel; Brent July crude oil contract closed down 17 cents per barrel, or 0.2 per cent, to 83.16 US dollars per barrel. API data show that US crude oil stocks rose by 509000 barrels in the week to May 3. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.46 million barrels and distillate stocks increased by 1.713 million barrels. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy said in a statement on Tuesday that the United States is seeking to buy up to 3.3 million barrels of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Short-term oil prices fluctuate weakly under the suppression of macro and geographical factors, and there is still no obvious marginal support on the supply and demand side. We will be concerned about whether the OPEC+ meeting on June 1st will extend the current production reduction plan to the second half of this year.

Fuel oilBaccarat888com:

On Tuesday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous period, closed up 0.98% at 3414 yuan per ton, while LU2407, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed up 0.75% at 4327 yuan per ton. The export quota of the second batch of low-sulfur fuel oil officially issued in 2024 totaled 4 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons over the second batch of quotas in 2023. Of these, Sinopec 1.86 million tons, PetroChina 1.75 million tons, CNOOC 360000 tons, Sinochem 10, 000 tons, Zhejiang Petrochemical 20, 000 tons. So far, the export quota for low-sulphur fuel oil in 2024 totaled 12 million tons, an increase of 9.09 percent over the same period last year. According to Jinlianchuang statistics, from January to April 2024, the bonded low-sulfur ship combustion output of Chinese refineries was 5.197 million tons, an increase of 7.11% over the same period last year, and the overall utilization rate of the first batch of export quotas was about 65%. Recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term FU and LU absolute prices will follow the oil price volatility weak, high and low sulfur price difference to maintain a low level.

Asphalt:

On Tuesday, BU2406, the main contract for asphalt in the previous period, closed up 0.25% at 3673 yuan / ton. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of the week of May 6, the total weekly output of domestic asphalt was 473000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons, or 3.5%, compared with the same period last year; it decreased by 65700 tons, or 12.2%, compared with the same period last year. The cumulative output of asphalt from January to May in 2024 was 13.3686 million tons, a decrease of 1.5773 million tons, or 10.6%, compared with the same period last year. Post-holiday asphalt demand is weak, although the supply increment is limited, but the inventory pressure is greater. Due to the recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term BU absolute price will be weaker with the oil price volatility.

Rubber:

On Tuesday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai glue, rose 135yuan / ton to 14285 yuan / ton, NR rose 110yuan / ton to 11690 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 175yuan / ton to 13095 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 13650 (+ 20), whole milk-RU2409 spread-650 (+ 30), RMB mixed 13250 (+ 100), mixed-RU2409 spread-1050 (- 70), BR9000 Qilu spot 13350 (+ 50), BR9000-BR main force 260 (- 105). As of the week of May 03, the general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 362200 tons, a decrease of 7900 tons, or 2.13%, compared with the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 111400 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons, or 1.41%, compared with the previous period. The total inventory is 473600 tons, a decrease of 9500 tons compared with the previous period. Myanmar plans to export 350000 tons of rubber in the 2024-25 fiscal year starting in April, officials from the Myanmar Rubber growers and producers Association said on Monday. Data show that in the 2023-24 fiscal year, Myanmar exported nearly 200000 tons of rubber. There is interference in the short-term weather in the domestic producing areas, but Yunnan is about to usher in the stage of rain, which is good for rubber tapping, weak support for drought speculation, recovery of downstream tire start-up, slow recovery of the terminal automobile market, Qingdao inventory continues to go to the warehouse, and the overall rubber price is weak and volatile.

Polyester:

TA409 closed yesterday at 5858 yuan / ton, up 0.07%; the spot offer rose 09 yuan to about 4 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4485 yuan / ton, up 0.31%, the basis increased by 30 yuan / ton to-60 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4420 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8406 yuan / ton, up 0.55%. The spot negotiation price is US $1026 / ton, the RMB price is 8532 yuan / ton, and the base difference is reduced by 41 yuan / ton to 144yuan / ton. The production and marketing of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continue to differentiate, and the average production and marketing is estimated at 5-60%. A set of polyester bottle and chip device with an annual capacity of 600000 tons in China Resources Jiangyin factory has an emergency stop due to sudden failure, and the start-up time is uncertain. A 400000 t / an ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Shaanxi was discharged at the beginning of May. At present, the plant has basically reached production capacity, and the device was stopped for maintenance in April. The restart of a 830000 t / an ethylene glycol plant in the United States has been delayed again for some reason, and it is currently planned to restart around the end of May. A 1.5 million-ton PTA device in Taiwan stopped for some reason today and is expected to be overhauled for 3-4 days. Oil price support is weak, polyester raw material equipment is overhauled as planned, downstream polyester due to environmental problems Xiaoshan 1.6 million tons all stop, TA follow the cost is weak. The extent of destocking of ethylene glycol inventory increases, which has a certain supporting effect on the price.

Methanol:

On Tuesday, the spot price of Taicang was 2660 yuan / ton, the price of Inner Mongolia North Line was 2440 yuan / ton, the price of CFR China was 295-300 U.S. dollars / ton, the price of CFR Southeast Asia was 355-360 U.S. dollars / ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract was 2567 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1230 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3200-3250 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 7300 yuan / ton. Overall, limited maintenance efforts on the supply side, lower downstream operating rates, short-term domestic methanol prices or pressure drop, in the medium to long term, low inventory and limited import supply to Hong Kong will still form support.

Polypropylene:

On Tuesday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7550-7720 yuan / ton. On the supply side, Yanshan Petrochemical second line (70, 000 tons / year) PP plant restart, Sinopec first line (60, 000 tons / year) PP plant restart. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-991.55 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-335.65 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-1077.67 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-455.35 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is 22.23 yuan / ton. On the whole, the supply is relatively loose, the short-term probability is weak, pay attention to the landing of the new production plant, if there is a delay, the price may be supported.

Polyethylene:

On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China HDPE spot market was 8530 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the mainstream price of East China LDPE market was 9750 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the mainstream price of North China LLDPE market was 8450 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton higher than the previous working day; polyethylene futures closed at 8503 yuan / ton, 98 yuan / ton higher than the previous working day. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-464 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1500 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, as the maintenance tends to stabilize, the output will stabilize around 500000 tons / week, the recovery of import profits will lead to an increase in import volume, while the demand side is weaker than last year, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the follow-up supply pressure will gradually appear, which may offset the positive expectations brought about by the reduction of social inventory.

Polyvinyl chloride:

On Tuesday, East China PVC market prices increased, calcium carbide type 5 material 5640-5720 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5750-5850 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price adjustment, calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream reference 5550-5630 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5780-6050 yuan / ton; South China PVC market price adjustment, calcium carbide 5 type material mainstream reference 5750-5790 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream quotation in 5770-5960 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6032 yuan / ton, up 108 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, the mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is 2600 yuan / ton. Domestic demand weakens periodically, and if exports cannot continue to provide additional increments, there will be a certain accumulation expectation, but the current spot prices are not high, and the probability of continuing to decline is not high. 09 contracts are expected to decline first and then rise. The overall performance is the trend of interval shocks.

Urea:

Urea futures prices yesterday as a whole strong operation, but the trend has weakened, the main 09 contract closing price of 2126 yuan: ton, up 0.81%. Spot prices continued to rise, rising by 100.40 yuan per ton in the mainstream areas, and rising to 2300 yuan per ton in Linyi, Shandong province. From a fundamental point of view, the daily output of urea is still rising, 189700 tons yesterday, urea supply side is still under pressure. The demand continues to follow up, local agricultural fertilizer and downstream industrial compound fertilizer are in the peak production season, and the rigid demand for urea still exists. At present, the domestic agricultural material market is still under the guidance of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the resistance in the middle and lower reaches reappears after the spot prices of urea period continue to rise, and a number of main bodies of the spot market have issued risk tips, it is expected that the trend of urea futures prices will decline in the day, and continue to pay attention to policy guidance.

Soda ash:

The recent price of soda ash manufacturers is relatively strong, but as the mood of the futures market recedes, the focus of quotation of traders is lowered. From a fundamental point of view, the recent alkali plant failures, short stoppage phenomenon is still more, the industry operating rate dropped slightly to 85.08%, soda ash supply side disturbance factors still exist. The demand side is still supported by rigid demand, but there is resistance to the high price transaction after the trade price continues to rise. Coupled with the overall decline in the trend of most industrial products, soda ash futures prices are expected to fall within the day, focusing on the degree of supply-side disturbance.

Glass:

Yesterday, the average price of domestic float glass was stable at 1689 yuan / ton. Spot production and sales remain high, with production and sales in many regions exceeding 100%, and the production and sales rate in Shahe region approaching 200%. Glass transactions continue to improve to bring support to the bottom of the market, but due to the overall decline in commodity market sentiment, glass futures are expected to follow the trend, continue to pay attention to the recovery of terminal real estate demand.