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The latest report of TrendForce Group Consulting shows thatZyngapokerfreechips2022Due to the influence of high unit price and high demand, the production capacity and output value of HBM products for DRAM from 2023 to 2025Zyngapokerfreechips2022The proportion has risen sharply.
The latest report of TrendForce Jibang Consulting shows that as the unit price of HBM is several times higher than the traditional DRAM (Conventional DRAM), the price difference is about five times higher than that of DDR5, and the iteration of AI chip-related products also promotes the expansion of HBM stand-alone capacity, which will promote the proportion of HBM products to DRAM production capacity and output value to rise significantly between 2023 and 2025. In terms of production capacity, HBM accounts for 2 per cent and 5 per cent of total DRAM capacity from 2023 to 2024, respectively, and is expected to exceed 10 per cent by 2025. In terms of output value, it is estimated that the total output value of HBM to DRAM will exceed 20% from 2024, and there is a chance that it will account for more than 30% by 2025.
The report points out that bargaining for 2025 HBM has begun in the second quarter of this year, but due to the limited total capacity of DRAM, suppliers have initially increased by 510%, including HBM2e,HBM3 and HBM3e, in order to avoid capacity crowding. There are three major reasons why the supplier bargaining time occurred earlier than the second quarter. First, HBM buyers still have high confidence in the outlook for AI demand and are willing to accept continued price increases. Second, the HBM3e TSV yield is only about 400.60%, which still needs to be improved. In addition, not all three original factories have been verified by HBM3e customers, so HBM buyers are also willing to accept price increases in order to lock in stable quality supplies. Third, the future HBM per Gb unit price may be due to the reliability of DRAM suppliers, as well as the supply capacity of the price difference, for suppliers, the future average sales unit price will be different, and further affect profitability.
Looking forward to 2025, from the perspective of major AI solution providers, the demand for HBM specifications will shift significantly to HBM3e, and there will be more 12hi products, leading to an increase in the capacity of HBM on a single chip. According to the estimate of TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the first-year growth rate of HBM demand in 2024 is nearly 200%, and is expected to double in 2025.